Friday, 2 November 2012

Trina Solar: Not The Way To Play A Solar Rebound


We recommend avoiding a position in Trina Solar Ltd. (TSL). Our recommendation is based upon the anti-dumping policy of the U.S against Chinese solar manufacturers, the rising price of polysilicon, a decline in profit margins, rising inventory, and slow demand in Europe. Trina missed its second quarter earnings by $0.51 and declared Q2 EPS of $1.3. Its revenue fell by 40% YoY and it missed revenue estimates by $52 million. The company has cut its future guidance based upon demand constraints and a high level of inventory.
The company got a hit because of the 30%-250% U.S. tariffs that were imposed on Chinese solar imports in a bid to protect domestic producers. The impact was seen in the results for the last quarter, as the company's revenue from U.S. markets declined from 36.8% to 26.3%. The revenue mix from Germany increased up to 42.1% from 36.7% in the first quarter. But Trina Solar has faced poor demand from European markets due to snowy weather conditions and, most importantly, European markets are in their maturity stage.
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