Based on third quarter results, lower than expected Q4 guidance and weaker tubular outlook, we maintain our neutral rating on United States Steel Corporation (X). The largest producer of steel in United States by volume, U.S. Steel reported third quarter adjusted EPS of $0.01, with a domestic flat rolled segment and European segments performing better than expectations. However, it provided weak Q4 guidance for all its reporting segments.
Weak European and North American steel markets do not come as a surprise. What is of concern is the magnitude of expected decline in profitability of the tubular segment and U.S. Steel Europe (USSE). U.S. Steel now expects lower tubular shipments in 4Q due to declining rig counts and lagging imports. Higher levels of imports (more than 50 percent of market share in 3Q) are putting downward pressure on prices. Although we expect oil country tubular goods (OCTG) earnings to improve in 2013, we believe that over the coming years, this highly profitable segment of U.S. Steel will see increasing competition. Higher costs and elevated inventory levels do not bode well for 4Q and 1H13.
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