1 Iron Ore Stock To Buy To Play A Rebound, 1 To Avoid

The iron ore market is showing signs of improvements, as prices increased to a three-month high and Brazil reported the third highest shipments ever in a month. However, as we will discuss later, the market still remains balanced and investors are looking at what actions the new leadership will take in China to boost steel demand.
We have a bullish stance on Vale S.A. (VALE). We think that this low cost producer with its long life reserves and strong balance sheet is well positioned to benefit from a rebound in iron ore prices. Vale is also offering a dividend yield of 3.4 per cent. However, the CLF Natural Resources (CLF) has operational concerns and it might cut dividend if prices do not rebound. Other than a dividend cut, raising capital and selling core assets are the other two options for CLF. We would advise investors to avoid this iron ore stock for the time being.
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Why Will Agency Mortgage REITs Get Hit The Most From QE3?

The announcement and the launch of the much-awaited third round of quantitative easing (QE3) by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has had mixed effects on the U.S. mortgage industry. Mortgage REITs are put in a difficult position as the street and investors in general welcomed Fed's new initiative to stimulate the sluggish US economy. Though we believe the interest spreads at agency mortgage REITs will be hurt, mortgage REITs that invest primarily in non-agency REITs will benefit. Mortgage REITs, which have large proportions of adjustable-rate securities in their holdings, will be least hurt by the acceleration in prepayments. Therefore, we recommend long positions in non-agency mortgage REITs. The remaining of the investment thesis aims at discussing the effects of QE3 on agency mortgage REITs (Annaly Capital (NLY) and American Capital Agency (AGNC), mortgage REITs that invest exclusively in adjustable rate securities (CMO), non-agency mortgage REITs (Newcastle Investment (NCT) and PennyMac (PMT)), and mREITs that hold a combination of agency and non-agency mortgage-backed securities MFA Financials (MFA) and Invesco Mortgage (IVR).

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AT&T: Limited Dividend Growth For This Dog Of The Dow

AT&T (T) is one of the dogs of the Dow, which is a strategy designed to pick ten stocks offering the highest dividend yields from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Under this strategy, an investor who purchases these stocks should outperform the market benchmark on a total return basis. The telecom industry in the US is characterized by companies that boast high dividend yields. AT&T recently announced that it will increase its quarterly dividend to 45 cents per share, which roughly translates into a dividend yield of 5.4%, based on the current share price of $33.20. In the rest of the report, we will discuss the company's cash flow position and the sustainability of its high payout.

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Dividend Growth Of Newmont Mining: A Story Of Rising Costs And Declining Production

Although gold prices increased recently and a majority of the analysts interviewed by Bloomberg remain bullish on the commodity in the short term, we have a neutral rating on Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM). We believe the company has a strong base of operations but the rising costs, particularly at its APAC operations, and declining production remain as concerns for NEM.
Recent Developments in Gold:
On speculations that there will be more stimulus measures in the wake of President Obama's re-election, gold surged to a three-week high and the precious yellow metal is set to achieve its highest weekly gain since January 2012.
Gold ETFs tracked by Bloomberg surged to an all-time high of 2,596.1 metric tons, valued at $144.5 billion. This year gold prices rose by 11 per cent, and have been rising for 12 straight years, the longest upward trend in at least nine decades.
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Annaly Capital's Diversification Out Of Agency MBS

On the 12th of November 2012, Annaly Capital (NLY), one of the large cap US Agency mortgage REITs, announced the proposed acquisition of CreXus Investment (CXS) for a price of $12.5 per share. CreXus is a commercial mortgage REIT that does not only invest in agency residential mortgage backed securities but also in commercial mortgage loans and other commercial real estate debt. It also invests in commercial real estate property, commercial mortgage-backed securities and other commercial real estate-related assets.

The acquisition signifies Annaly Capital's attempts to diversify its asset base in a challenging environment where the Fed is committed to buying Agency mortgage backed securities. This has resulted in a decline in the yields for these securities. In several of our previous reports, we favored mortgage REITs with significant holdings of non-agency mortgage backed securities as opposed to agency mortgage backed securities. Annaly Capital is committed to allocating up to one fourth of its equity to assets other than agency residential mortgage backed securities. The company is also committed to restructuring its capital by buying back convertible notes worth $441 million, extending the duration of its short-term borrowings (repurchase agreements) by another 93 days to 220 days, and lowering the company's cost of capital by issuing preferred shares and convertible notes worth $1.5 billion.
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RF Micro Devices: How To Play The Growing Telecom Market Of China

We recommend investors to take a long position in RF Micro Devices (RFMD) as the company has significant growth potential due to its presence in the growing telecom market of China. Rising smartphone penetration and upgrades to the faster 3G and 4G technology by the telecom carriers should work in the favor of RFMD by increasing demand for its products and services. The stock is trading at cheap valuations and the current price of $4.45 could prove to be a good entry point for investors to take advantage of its future growth.
RF Micro Devices Inc. designs and manufactures high performance radio frequency components and semiconductor equipment for its customers, both domestically and internationally. The company's products enable mobility and connectivity in the mobile devices, wireless infrastructure, local area network, cable television, and aerospace and defense markets.

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Bottom In Coal Stocks?

Last week, Arch Coal Inc. (ACI) reported its third quarter results, which were better than expected. The stock was up 10% on the earnings release. Strong results for the company were driven by better demand and cost control efforts. ACI's results for the quarter are being viewed as a positive sign for the industry.
Arch Coal Inc. is the second largest domestic coal producer and one of the world's largest coal producers. It sold more than 156 million tons of coal in 2011. Last week, the company reported its third quarter 2012 results, which were better than what the market and analysts were anticipating. Reported revenues for the quarter were $1.09 billion, down 9% YOY, beating analysts' revenue expectations of $1 billion. Reported net income for the quarter was $45.8 million or 22 cents per share as compared to $8.9 million or 4 cents per share in the third quarter of 2011. The company was able to beat earnings estimates as analysts were expecting a loss of 16 cents per share. In 3Q 2012, EBITDA increased to $257 million, up 21% YOY. Better than expected results for the company in 3Q 2012 were mainly driven by cost control efforts, rising natural gas prices and favorable weather, leading to better domestic thermal coal demand.
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Why Is This Brazilian Oil Company A Buy?

We revise our future outlook to bullish on Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras (PBR), based upon achieving 98 percent of nominal capacity, 31 percent increase in EBITDA, operational efficiencies and production start-up in the field of Campos basin and Gulf of Mexico. In our opinion, the company's expansion plans, its cost control philosophy and the expected increase in production activities, will enable the company to further improve its profitability position.
PBR's bright future prospects are reflected in its production start-up of Baleia Azul field in the Campos Basin, which will enable the company to add 100,000 barrels per day to its production capacity by February 2013. Moreover, investment in another lucrative project of oil and gas exploration in Chinook water field would help the company add 80,000 barrels of oil per day to its production portfolio. Currently, the company is on the track towards strengthening its position and becoming attractive for value investors.
In Q3, the company benefited profits of $2,744 million, as compared to a loss of $685 million in the third quarter of 2011. It has also expanded its margins by making its operations more efficient. PBR's EBITDA increased by 31 percent over the course of last one year.
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AIG Earnings Beat, Cheap Valuation Make Us Bullish

On November 1, 2012, American International Group (AIG) reported (pdf) performance for its third quarter, which topped analysts' consensus expectations by 12%. AIG reported a bottom line of $1 per share against consensus mean expectation of $0.88 per share. The company has shown a remarkable turnaround since 2008, when it was rescued with a massive bailout package. The Treasury Department of the US government has recouped $197.4 billion on its initial investment of $182.5 billion in the company, and is no longer the majority owner of the company.
The performance in the third quarter of the current year was an improvement on the same quarter of the previous year. The following table is a snapshot of the company's performance during the third quarter.
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Trina Solar: Not The Way To Play A Solar Rebound

We recommend avoiding a position in Trina Solar Ltd. (TSL). Our recommendation is based upon the anti-dumping policy of the U.S against Chinese solar manufacturers, the rising price of polysilicon, a decline in profit margins, rising inventory, and slow demand in Europe. Trina missed its second quarter earnings by $0.51 and declared Q2 EPS of $1.3. Its revenue fell by 40% YoY and it missed revenue estimates by $52 million. The company has cut its future guidance based upon demand constraints and a high level of inventory.
The company got a hit because of the 30%-250% U.S. tariffs that were imposed on Chinese solar imports in a bid to protect domestic producers. The impact was seen in the results for the last quarter, as the company's revenue from U.S. markets declined from 36.8% to 26.3%. The revenue mix from Germany increased up to 42.1% from 36.7% in the first quarter. But Trina Solar has faced poor demand from European markets due to snowy weather conditions and, most importantly, European markets are in their maturity stage.
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UBS AG: Bottom Line Improves

On October 30, 2012, UBS AG (UBS) reported solid performance for the third quarter of the current year. All business segments reported growth in their respective bottom lines, while the company also built a strong capital base during the second quarter. The bank reported pre-tax earnings of Swiss Franc CHF 1.4 billion after adjusting its own credit losses, impairment losses and restructuring provisions. This is against a pre-tax profit of CHF 951 million at the end of the second quarter of the current year. The improvement in the bottom line, when compared to the linked quarter, was largely due to an improvement in net interest and trading revenues.

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MetroPCS Beats Earnings: Are Consumers Shifting To Prepaid Phones?

The largest pay as you go telecom carrier in the United States, MetroPCS (PCS) Communications Inc., recently reported its third quarter results. Results were impressive as the company more than doubled its bottom line from the same quarter last year. The company posted earnings per share of $0.52 on revenues of $1.26 billion. Both revenues and earnings grew, by 5% and 177%, respectively. The company ended the quarter beating estimates for both revenues and earnings. Third quarter revenues of $1.26 billion beat revenue estimates of $1.25, whereas, PCS beat earnings estimate by a comfortable margin of $0.26. Despite the fact that earnings were helped by a $53 million gain on sale of certain securities, the company would have still beaten the EPS estimates by a margin of $0.19 per share after excluding the effects of the said sale of securities.

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U.S. Steel: Short-Term Troubles Are Not Going Anywhere

Based on third quarter results, lower than expected Q4 guidance and weaker tubular outlook, we maintain our neutral rating on United States Steel Corporation (X). The largest producer of steel in United States by volume, U.S. Steel reported third quarter adjusted EPS of $0.01, with a domestic flat rolled segment and European segments performing better than expectations. However, it provided weak Q4 guidance for all its reporting segments.
Weak European and North American steel markets do not come as a surprise. What is of concern is the magnitude of expected decline in profitability of the tubular segment and U.S. Steel Europe (USSE). U.S. Steel now expects lower tubular shipments in 4Q due to declining rig counts and lagging imports. Higher levels of imports (more than 50 percent of market share in 3Q) are putting downward pressure on prices. Although we expect oil country tubular goods (OCTG) earnings to improve in 2013, we believe that over the coming years, this highly profitable segment of U.S. Steel will see increasing competition. Higher costs and elevated inventory levels do not bode well for 4Q and 1H13.
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A Multiple Of 6x Makes General Motors A Great Buy For Long-Term Investors

From a growth perspective, General Motors' (GM) results were extremely disappointing. Revenue fell by 2.4% and profits fell by 13%. Most of the losses were propelled by declining revenues from European operations, especially the Opel unit in Germany. Bears point out that Ford (F), facing the same problems in Europe, has managed to post a rise of 17% in EPS. However, one needs to understand that GM has been restructuring its Opel unit under its Interim Vice Chairman Stephen Girsky. Therefore, the costs associated with restructuring have adversely impacted profits. The stock is only trading at a forward price to earnings multiple of 6x.

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This 11.5% Dividend Yielder Is Safe Despite Operating In Volatile Drybulk Shipping Industry

Navios Maritime (NMM) is an international owner and operator of drybulk carriers, formed by Navios Maritime Holdings Inc (NM). NMM reported its earnings last Tuesday. The company topped both the earnings and revenue estimates. This was a surprise, given that dry bulkers have been facing tough times since 2009, when most of them could not predict the future demand and ordered much more vessels than actually required. This led to overcapacity, which in turn brought down the freight rates to ridiculously low levels. NMM offers a dividend yield of 11.5%.
An Update on the Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
BDI is composed of weighted averages of Baltic Capesize Index (BCI), Baltic Handysize Index (BHI), Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) and Baltic Supramax Index (BSI).
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Buy Equinix To Play Growing Demand In Data And Network Traffic

Equinix (EQIX) recently announced that its data center in Hong Kong has been chosen by RTS Realtime Systems Group. Realtime, which is a leader in providing electronic trading software as well as risk management solutions, is in the process of expanding its operations in Asia and has selected Equinix to provide data center solutions. Equinix's data center will serve as RTS's solution to providing trading solutions in the Asia-Pacific region. The data center will be linked to the company's global network which provides market access to over 60 exchanges worldwide. RTS's clients depend on its network for high speed access to various asset classes, and with access to Equinix's data center, its clients can have easy access to major exchanges around the world.
This latest development is another milestone for Equinix, not only because it further cements the long standing strategic relationship with RTS, but also because it further enhances its presence in Asia, a region with tremendous growth potential. Over the last few years, Asia has been a particularly lucrative market for Equinix as it is one of the fastest growing economies in the world and, according to the International Monetary Fund, Asia will continue to be the global growth generator going forward, despite the cut in the recent growth forecast of the region.
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Caterpillar's Woes In China Continue

Over the last two weeks, all news about the Chinese construction sector has been marked with ambiguity. On one hand, Caterpillar's (CAT) CEO Doug Oberhelman was reported saying that his recent visit to China revealed a positive "attitude change" among CAT's customers. On the other hand, CAT's largest competitor in China, Sany Heavy Industry Co, reported a 59% decline in profits and attributed it to slow economic growth in the region.
Competitor's Point of View
Sany
China's largest machinery manufacturing firm according to market cap reported a 59 percent YoY decline in profits and an 18 percent decline in revenues. Net income declined from 1.73 billion Yuan to 714 million Yuan. Revenues fell from 10.85 billion Yuan to 8.9 billion Yuan. The company was wary of the decelerating economic growth in the region. Another sign of the economic slowdown was the fact that accounts receivable jumped up by 83 percent YoY to 20 billion Yuan. The company's excavator sales, its second biggest revenue contributor, plummeted by 27 percent.
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Seadrill's 8.2% Dividend Yield, Potential Price Appreciation Make It A Buy

We maintain our bullish stance on Seadrill (SDRL) based upon its quality of asset base, high dividend yield, attractive contract backlog, and continuous focus on growing fleets. It is highly attractive to dividend growth investors, with a dividend yield of 8.2 percent, in comparison to the industry average of 1.8 percent. The company's recent initiative to relocate its business operations from Norway would bring logistic efficiencies and enable the company to attain more potential customers.
The company's modern fleet is enjoying high demand in the market, after oil exploration companies increased their production with increasing oil prices. As the total rig counts in the Middle East and Africa have increased by 31% and 38% over the course of the last one year, we believe the company has the potential to capitalize on growing energy demand in the coming years.
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Is American Capital Agency's 15.6% Dividend Yield Best Amongst mREITs?

American Capital Agency (AGNC), a U.S. mortgage REITs that is largely followed, disclosed its third quarter performance on October 29, 2012.
The company's net interest income will be negatively affected if the Fed decides to accelerate its bond buying. AGNC has one of the lowest conditional prepayment rates but at the same time most of the company's asset portfolio is invested in fixed rate securities. High exposure to fixed rates securities does pose a threat of a future dividend cut but this risk is with almost every mREIT. AGNC remains one of our most favored agency mortgage REITs, as it has the lowest conditional prepayment rate among its peers. Therefore, we recommend the stock to income-oriented investors for a 15.6% dividend yield.

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Volatile Netflix Is A No Go For Investors

Netflix's (NFLX) shares had plummeted around 16% due to cutting down of the challenging domestic subscription target, from 7 million to 5.4 million for the year. The decline has been offset by unconfirmed rumors of Microsoft (MSFT) looking to buy the company. The current price of $69 is above the consensus mean price target of $65. As the volatility in the stock price continues, we reiterate our earlier recommendation of avoiding NFLX.
In the 10% session after the Q3 earnings release, CEO Reed Hastings said that the company is on track to full brand recovery within a three year period, helped by spending on originals. Free cash flow is expected to be negative for several coming quarters due to funding of originals. It is of importance to know that according to the earnings call transcript, the company does not have rights for syndication, DVD and licensing of original content. Moreover, the CFO David Wells said in the earnings call that original content would be less than 10% of the hours viewed, or maybe less than 5% for next year. This gives rise to the debate of how many subscriptions can be gained through offering the expensive original content.

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